In this issue of Sunday Strategy, we look at five stories to think about next week, including: The Shift to Smaller Internet, How Many Episodes Before Giving Up, AI & People Named ‘Null’, RIP Skype and the state of the Clean Energy Revolution.
In addition, we have ads from: Makers Mark, ESPN, LinkedIn, Chipotle and Canva.
// Five Stories of the Week:
1.) The Future of the Internet is Small.
With distrust in large social media platforms, their owners and their content increasing – new research from Vox shows how user bases are beginning to fracture towards smaller platforms to find a greater sense of community. While larger social media platforms have historically promised connection, users are increasingly feeling like a media commodity. With 86% of social media users saying big platforms’ roles are changing and 60% say the state of social media is negative – users are increasingly equating quality community experiences with smaller platforms.
2.) How Many Episodes of Show to Watch Before You Give Up?
When we have so many shows we can watch, where we ‘invest’ our time as viewers is an increasingly fraught decision. Wait for a show to ‘get good’ and it may reward you or you find out it never did. Daniel Parris’ ‘Stat Significant’ substack has tried to answer this challenge with data – looking at average IMDB user rankings for shows by episode number and figuring out when a show will hit its stride.
His wider analysis is linked below, but overall 7 episodes is the magic number for quality. Shows like ‘Breaking Bad’, ‘Brooklyn 9-9’ and ‘Doctor Who’ took 6 episodes to have an episode ranking that surpassed the series average. ‘Community’ and ‘Friends’ saw the same at 7, while ‘Bojack Horseman’, ‘Buffy’ and ‘It’s Always Sunny’ exceeded the average on the 8th episode
Alternatively, struggling shows tend to hit terminal decline between seasons 5 and 6, holding a negative average episode ranking vs. their first season. Notable declines like ‘Game of Thrones’ (Season 8 saw a 28.5% decline in ratings vs. the first season) and ‘The Chilling Adventures of Sabrina’ (Season 4 saw a 33% decline vs. the first season) show this overall rule in practice.
3.) Meet the “Nulls” – AI’s Enemies From Birth.
Technology innovates faster than the processes and guardrails around it. Just ask anyone with the last name “NULL”. There was an old XKCD webcomic that introduced the idea of “Bobby Drop Tables”. A mom is called by her son’s school, panicked that her son “Robert’); DROP TABLE Students;” and all the other students’ records now didn’t exist. For those versed in SQL or injection attacks, the joke is that the name is also a command to delete a table.
But what happens when “Bobby Drop Tables” is real? Those living their life with a “Null” last name know all too well – as databases register this as “no value” unless the data has been properly sanitized. As we automate more and more of our daily lives, but often don’t police inputs with the same level of care, this will be a more common issue. And as more and more people push back on technology’s oversight of our lives, are we going to see intentional uses of this approach? How long until the “Drop Tables” Jr?
4.) Goodbye Skype – the Brand That Could Have Been.
There is a world where everyone Skypes each other, but this won’t be it. As Microsoft folds Skype into Teams, it’s worth examining how a service that was once revolutionary missed multiple opportunities to become an enduring part of our daily lives. Skype had a moment, but it was supplanted first by hardware-integrated solutions like iMessage and FaceTime, then by ecosystem-based platforms like Zoom and Teams. Despite both eBay and Microsoft ownership, each with a view to how to anchor it to user’s lives, Skype lacked a compelling distinctiveness to follow through. Some will say the pandemic was its last chance, but given Microsoft hasn’t mentioned it in earnings since 2017 – we can assume it died well before.
5.) Is a Clean Energy Revolution Still Unstoppable?
As the US government jumps fully back into fossil fuels and energy companies back away from targets and commitments, it’s reasonable to lament the progress in clean energy that we’re losing. However, the Wall Street Journal makes a compelling case that technological forces, existing government investment and economic forces have made a clean energy shift unstoppable.
They point out that fossil fuel production is still at a high, dashing my belief of lost progress by showing that little progress has been made in certain areas. They strengthen a case by highlighting that many of the Trump administration’s moves towards ‘fossil fuels’ will be more consumer focused in nature (e.g. ending EV car buyer subsidy). With policy performance within the first Trump government as a guide, it does seem likely we’ll see fewer substantive and more PR friendly changes – especially as clean energy investment has benefitted so many states.
However, the issue that still remains is whether ‘unstoppable’ is soon enough. The progress of wind, solar and others is an important aspect of combating climate change and one that seemingly needs to get here soon. The economic inevitability of these technologies might not be enough when the clock is ticking on climate.
// Ads You Might Have Missed:
Modern workers face a paradox – engagement with employers and companies remains low, but economic uncertainty is still high in many markets across the world. Many would leave, with terms like ‘revenge quitting’ arising in culture, but economic factors keep them in jobs they don’t like. For job sites like LinkedIn, finding a way to recognize this but still engage and entertain is a challenge.
Their latest ads tackle this through humour, taking a literal approach to having ‘itchy feet’. Feet impossibly arising to face employees, through impressive sock puppetry, challenge workers to leave their jobs and find something new on LinkedIn. The message still pushes to LinkedIn, but the humor around it makes this less scary and more palatable than a more direct push in today’s market.
2.) ‘Perfectly Unreasonable’ – Makers Mark:
Most spirits brands default to stories of the dedication and craft that goes into the product at some point in their lives. However, many of these default to the self-important or serious, telling worthy stories of hundreds of years of heritage and work – in ways that often struggle to engage. For every Robert Carlyle ‘Johnnie Walker’ piece, there are countless others that only engage those that already know about the brand. However, Makers Mark’s newest ad takes a unique approach to dedication, turning the lens on the drinker in a hyperbolic situation – involving a carved ice cube’s journey from glacier to glass. While it doesn’t say much explicitly about the brand, it attempts to build an interesting connection around dedication.
3.) ‘BracketBrain’ – ESPN Tournament Challenge:
ESPN’s ‘Welcome to Sportscenter’ ads are some of my favourites of all time. The long running campaign turns the sports broadcaster’s headquarters into a melting pot of athletes, mascots and funny situations. However, you’d be mistaken if you thought ESPN’s newest tournament challenge ad was part of this series. Both use a selection of mascots, but the new ad ‘Bracketbrain’, which promotes their app in advance of the NCAA Basketball tournament (Go Auburn) isn’t of the same family.
The ad, which takes a surreal, nearly severance, style approach to a fan’s looming fixation on the sport borrows from ‘Welcome to Sportscenter’, but intentionally aims to go beyond it. Its tone and visuals begin to create separation, though I wonder if needs to? Either way, for basketball fans awaiting the tournament, the subtle cues from ‘basketball pupils’ to courts being cleaned mid-office, subtly nod to the excitement that may draw users into creating brackets in the app.
4.) ‘Unfolded’ – Chipotle:
There’s a lot to talk about within Chipotle’s latest campaign. Their latest ad, ‘Unfolded’ is the first National TV ad to premiere in the metaverse, being screened on Roblox. That said, there are a few more interesting elements to the wider initiative – which pledges $2m to sustainable farming practices under the brands ‘Cultivate a Better World’ platform. If this platform seems familiar, it’s been the subject of several similar ads before, 2011’s ‘Back to the Start’ featuring Willie Nelson covering ‘The Scientist’ and 2021’s ‘A Future Begins’ featuring Kacey Musgraves covering ‘Fix You’ and featuring a focus on the next generation of farmers (including the characters and their son from the original ad).
The new ads continuation of the art direction, musical approach (slow melodic covers) and brand platform show a long term commitment and cumulative effect. However, when we think of other long running campaigns like this, they’re usually tied to a moment or occasion. Does the lack of an anchor to drive consumer expectation for the campaign and less frequent use mitigate the good work Chipotle is doing?
5.) ‘Dream Boyfriend’ – Canva:
Creative platform Canva’s launch in Japan has seen the brand create a series of videos showing how Canva fits into the lives of Japanese islanders, starring a young girl named Yuki. While other videos tug at the heart strings or tap into cultural moments, ‘Dream Boyfriend’ features a playful take on photo editing. Featuring surfer Kai who’s girlfriend seemingly vanishes into thin air, the ad resolves by showing how Yuki is editing herself into her place through Canva – slyly finishing by showing a number of goods the edited photos can go on.
The storyline gets a little creepier when its anyone aside from a young girl doing the editing, but it shows how product and tech demos can have a little bit of quirky humor to them. Additionally, with a TikTok user in the US editing herself into the dating app photos of men she matches with – this campaign has seemingly tapped into a cross cultural trend.
// Sunday Snippets
// Marketing & Advertising //
// Australian health insurance nib donates the excess processing power of its digital OOH to medical research [Ads]
// Coach’s SS25 campaign wants us all to slow down [Ads]
// Vanish makes a monster out of a stain in an ad that attempts to elevate the value of clean uniforms [Ads]
// Mailchimp’s new loyalty report unpacks the neuro-biological drivers of loyalty – showing its more instinctual than rational [Research]
// M&S is the first ot trial Neighbourly’s food surplus initiative [Brands]
// GAP enlists Parker Posey to promote its SS25 campaign [Ads]
// Amazon plans expansion for its Temu / Shein competitor [Marketing]
// Technology & Media //
// Raised by YouTube: Research agency Archrival’s new report highlights children’s relationship with YouTube [Media]
// Microsoft announces Skype is shutting down, pushing users to Teams and highlighting what could have been with the brand [Media]
// Nearly half of Americans report using a VPN [Technology]
// Just 3 customers made up more than 30% of Nvidia’s revenue [Finance]
// For Substack, here come the brands [Media]
// Sure AI can do deep research, but can it beat Pokemon? Claude is trying to find out [AI]
// McKinsey’s new report claims leaders and not workers are going to be the biggest barrier to AI adoption in the workplace [AI]
// Life & Culture //
// The risks and rewards of being a ‘stream of consciousness texter’ [Culture]
// If you believed in FireFest one, shame on them, if you’re surprised by questions around FireFest two, shame on you [Culture]
// ‘Pregnant, Then Screwed’ is asking people to shred their CVs on LinkedIn to highlight the impact of maternity discrimination [Work]
// Francis Ford Coppola leans into Megalopolis’ ‘Razzie’ Award [Film]
// Americans are getting worse at grieving [Culture]
// Manchester researchers find that vaping is worse than smoking [Health]
// Canadian coffee shops have renamed ‘Americanos’ to ‘Canadianos’. The most dramatic coffee news since Sabrina Carpenter taught everyone to say ‘espresso’ properly. [Food]
// Does anyone use their tiny ‘Ozempic balconies’ in modern apartments? [Architecture]
// Until Next Sunday
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